Probabilistic prediction is pretty accurate in mathematical terms and reflects uncertainties. It just faces system complexity, so there’s no margin to exploit.
Sure, but trying to predict the market isn’t really about predicting the market. It’s about doing your research, paying attention, and being the first. We should emphasise the word trying here though, big difference between trying to do something and actually doing it, though it’s not impossible. A lot of funds and platforms are essentially selling you algorithms with a proven history of beating the market, and they achieve that by trying to predict it, and they do a fairly good job most of the time.
As a real world example, I just had a look at Mobilecoin (MOB - I do find the ticker-style naming annoying), which is used by the Signal messaging app.
Round trip EUR to MOB, send, then MOB to EUR looks like I’d get about 85 euros for every 100 euros I want to send. It’s very hard to see how something like this will gain traction at those transaction rates - and that’s ignoring fluctuation in coin value. All the fancy websites and slick stick are just lipstick on a pig, imo. Give me sub-0.1% transaction cost and a fixed value and… oh, better do a SEPA transfer!
? We do that for our currencies as well though. GBP, USD, JPY
Euro, Pounds, Dollar. None of these have fixed values. They’re openly market traded currencies.
You don’t get this though? Sure, banks do it; they’re subsidised off the backs of the debt of those who can barely afford it. Businesses pay 20-30p per FP transfer.
Has anyone read this yet? O-S_Stablecoins_consultation_response.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)
I forgot to post, I’m partway through it
This move by the UK financial regulator reflects a growing global concern about the potential misuse of cryptocurrency ATMs for money laundering. Stricter regulations aim to address these risks and protect the financial system. It’s crucial for authorities to strike a balance between innovation in the crypto space and mitigating the potential illicit activities associated with it.
Any illegal activities associated with crypto ATMs are things that are much easier to do with mules and conventional ML methods
Tl;Dr financial regulator borked this one
Not convinced, it seems to be the method of choice for tele scammers in the US now (based on Kitboga videos anyway…).
While crypto presents intriguing possibilities, its practicality for everyday transactions remains doubtful due to issues like transaction speed and cost variability. Despite its potential, widespread adoption for day-to-day purchases seems unlikely given these challenges. However, it continues to be an area of interest and investment for many.